CANDIDATE #1104768

the market cap experiment $mcap

caphMEiXBiEVfxYqrFuPPpSctbZFAL7zt7gif5J6D7e

Research boundary: Creator-supplied metadata is an unverified claim. Candidate status is not a trade or execution signal.

DECISION-TIME DATA

Launch Facts

Detected: 2026-09-16 08:55:31
Initial Buy: 0.2822 SOL
Mayhem / Cashback: no / no
Creator: CPxyv9ya9JqoMnLLXRDs6n4ZVqawEE3QeAhLkEVFFihh

Decision

Ruleset: candidate_ruleset_v2
Score: 80
Age: 17.530 s
Feature Hash: c7b9bea9b72fdd57dcf9297f25805111d86b9be61cdd4f7ac8335ea10641d79f

cheap_screen_passed, metadata_fetched, website_claimed, social_claimed, exact_identity_evidence, strong_initial_buy, early_buyer_count, positive_buy_sell_ratio

Metadata & Identity

Fetch: success
Website: https://www.mcapexperiment.fun/
Identity: strongly_verified

Frozen point-in-time features

{
    "launch": {
        "is_mayhem": false,
        "quote_mint": "So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112",
        "is_cashback": false,
        "instruction_version": "create_v2",
        "initial_buy_quote_amount_raw": "282220132"
    },
    "creator": {
        "launches_1h": 0,
        "launches_7d": 0,
        "launches_24h": 0,
        "graduation_rate": 0,
        "previous_launches": 0,
        "previous_candidates": 0,
        "previous_graduations": 0
    },
    "identity": {
        "status": "strongly_verified",
        "duplicate_claims": 1,
        "exact_mint_evidence": 2
    },
    "metadata": {
        "status": "success",
        "available": true,
        "claim_count": 3,
        "social_claims": 1,
        "website_claims": 1,
        "metadata_uri_reuse": 0,
        "metadata_hash_reuse": 0
    },
    "captured_at": "2026-09-16T08:55:48.941476Z",
    "launch_age_ms": 17530,
    "early_behavior": {
        "buy_count": 105,
        "sell_count": 64,
        "window_count": 5,
        "buy_sell_ratio": 1.640625,
        "buy_volume_raw": "62057737188",
        "sell_volume_raw": "34831307186",
        "first_sell_delay_ms": 1194,
        "creator_buy_volume_raw": "282220132",
        "creator_sell_volume_raw": "0",
        "max_window_unique_buyers": 40,
        "max_window_unique_sellers": 20
    },
    "cheap_screen_status": "pass",
    "cheap_screen_reasons": {
        "checks": {
            "sol_quote": true,
            "creator_present": true,
            "research_signal": true,
            "minimum_initial_buy": true,
            "creator_frequency_ok": true,
            "metadata_uri_present": true,
            "verified_pump_create": true
        },
        "failed": [],
        "policy": "cheap_screen_v1",
        "creator_launches_1h": 0,
        "previous_creator_launches": 0,
        "initial_buy_quote_amount_raw": "282220132",
        "previous_creator_graduations": 0
    }
}

Early Behavior

Window	Buys	Sells	Buy volume	Unique buyers	Quality
0–1000 ms	1	0	282220132	1	observed_logs
1000–2000 ms	9	2	4746631701	9	observed_logs
2000–5000 ms	28	14	18691291139	28	observed_logs
5000–10000 ms	40	18	30923283370	40	observed_logs
10000–15000 ms	27	30	7414310846	27	observed_logs

POST-DECISION OUTCOMES

Horizon	Status	Price	Return	Peak	Max DD	Graduated	Creator dump
60 s	available	0.000018910000000000	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	no	no
300 s	available	0.000013400000000000	-29.14%	0.00%	-29.14%	no	no
900 s	available	0.000003561000000000	-81.17%	0.00%	-81.17%	no	no
3600 s	available	0.000002839000000000	-84.99%	0.00%	-84.99%	no	no
21600 s	available	0.000002743000000000	-85.49%	0.00%	-85.49%	no	no
86400 s	available	0.000002810000000000	-85.14%	0.00%	-85.49%	no	no
172800 s	unavailable		—	0.00%	-85.49%	no	no
259200 s	available	0.000003196000000000	-83.10%	0.00%	-85.49%	no	no