CANDIDATE #1496004
the market cap experiment $mcap
mcapywHETHaxqsCjBZx7WYuvJdJksuDjdvN8DZz8mtM
Research boundary: Creator-supplied metadata is an unverified claim. Candidate status is not a trade or execution signal.
DECISION-TIME DATA
Launch Facts
- Detected
- 2026-09-30 02:10:24
- Initial Buy
- 0.2822 SOL
- Mayhem / Cashback
- no / no
- Creator
- FwbnMeSpBZ6yBQnjMzjanSQ2K9WujZkSRaTqDdv5xwSF
Decision
- Ruleset
- candidate_ruleset_v2
- Score
- 75
- Age
- 16.475 s
- Feature Hash
- ff97215b2cdce74825596c5ec3d1bb528b7866047edce8045911dfeb90569dad
cheap_screen_passed, metadata_fetched, website_claimed, social_claimed, exact_identity_evidence, strong_initial_buy, early_buyer_count
Metadata & Identity
- Fetch
- success
- Website
- https://www.themcapexperiment.fun/
- Identity
- strongly_verified
Frozen point-in-time features
{
"launch": {
"is_mayhem": false,
"quote_mint": "So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112",
"is_cashback": false,
"instruction_version": "create_v2",
"initial_buy_quote_amount_raw": "282220132"
},
"creator": {
"launches_1h": 0,
"launches_7d": 0,
"launches_24h": 0,
"graduation_rate": 0,
"previous_launches": 0,
"previous_candidates": 0,
"previous_graduations": 0
},
"identity": {
"status": "strongly_verified",
"duplicate_claims": 1,
"exact_mint_evidence": 2
},
"metadata": {
"status": "success",
"available": true,
"claim_count": 3,
"social_claims": 1,
"website_claims": 1,
"metadata_uri_reuse": 0,
"metadata_hash_reuse": 0
},
"captured_at": "2026-09-30T02:10:41.273265Z",
"launch_age_ms": 16475,
"early_behavior": {
"buy_count": 72,
"sell_count": 53,
"window_count": 5,
"buy_sell_ratio": 1.3584905660377358,
"buy_volume_raw": "25285821044",
"sell_volume_raw": "29964943079",
"first_sell_delay_ms": 4428,
"creator_buy_volume_raw": "282220132",
"creator_sell_volume_raw": "0",
"max_window_unique_buyers": 53,
"max_window_unique_sellers": 25
},
"cheap_screen_status": "pass",
"cheap_screen_reasons": {
"checks": {
"sol_quote": true,
"creator_present": true,
"research_signal": true,
"minimum_initial_buy": true,
"creator_frequency_ok": true,
"metadata_uri_present": true,
"verified_pump_create": true
},
"failed": [],
"policy": "cheap_screen_v1",
"creator_launches_1h": 0,
"previous_creator_launches": 0,
"initial_buy_quote_amount_raw": "282220132",
"previous_creator_graduations": 0
}
}Early Behavior
| Window | Buys | Sells | Buy volume | Unique buyers | Creator sell | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–1000 ms | 1 | 0 | 282220132 | 1 | 0 | observed_logs |
| 1000–2000 ms | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | observed_logs |
| 2000–5000 ms | 9 | 2 | 2055658979 | 9 | 0 | observed_logs |
| 5000–10000 ms | 53 | 35 | 20238612903 | 53 | 0 | observed_logs |
| 10000–15000 ms | 9 | 16 | 2709329030 | 9 | 0 | observed_logs |
POST-DECISION OUTCOMES
| Horizon | Status | Price | Return | Peak | Max DD | Graduated | Creator dump |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 s | available | 0.000007023000000000 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | no | no |
| 300 s | available | 0.000006561000000000 | -6.58% | 11.62% | -16.30% | no | no |
| 900 s | available | 0.000007776000000000 | 10.72% | 11.62% | -16.30% | no | no |
| 3600 s | available | 0.000003419000000000 | -51.32% | 11.62% | -56.38% | no | no |
| 21600 s | available | 0.000003368000000000 | -52.04% | 11.62% | -57.04% | no | no |
| 86400 s | available | 0.000003354000000000 | -52.24% | 11.62% | -57.21% | no | no |
| 172800 s | available | 0.000003331000000000 | -52.57% | 11.62% | -57.51% | no | no |
| 259200 s | unavailable | — | 11.62% | -57.51% | no | no |